The 10 biggest risks the world faces in 2017
by Elena Holodny
2016 saw a repositioning of the pieces on the geopolitical board, with shocks such as the rise of populism and rejection of globalism, Britons voting to leave the EU, the failed coup in Turkey, Russia's military intervention in Syria, the end of America's pivot to Asia, and so on.
But perhaps the biggest surprise of all was the November election of Donald Trump, whose "Make America Great Again" slogan could suggest a world with no global leader.
"The triumph of 'America first' as the primary driver of foreign policy in the world's only superpower marks a break with decades of US exceptionalism and a belief in the indispensability of US leadership, however flawed and uneven," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan wrote in the firm's annual overview of top risks.
"With it ends a 70-year geopolitical era of Pax Americana, one in which globalization and Americanization were tightly linked, and American hegemony in security, trade, and promotion of values provided guardrails for the global economy," they continued. "In 2017, we enter a period of geopolitical recession."
We put together Eurasia Group's top 10 risks for 2017, along with its analysis of the risks and, as a bonus, a list of red herrings:
1. Independent America
2016 saw a repositioning of the pieces on the geopolitical board, with shocks such as the rise of populism and rejection of globalism, Britons voting to leave the EU, the failed coup in Turkey, Russia's military intervention in Syria, the end of America's pivot to Asia, and so on.
But perhaps the biggest surprise of all was the November election of Donald Trump, whose "Make America Great Again" slogan could suggest a world with no global leader.
"The triumph of 'America first' as the primary driver of foreign policy in the world's only superpower marks a break with decades of US exceptionalism and a belief in the indispensability of US leadership, however flawed and uneven," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan wrote in the firm's annual overview of top risks.
"With it ends a 70-year geopolitical era of Pax Americana, one in which globalization and Americanization were tightly linked, and American hegemony in security, trade, and promotion of values provided guardrails for the global economy," they continued. "In 2017, we enter a period of geopolitical recession."
We put together Eurasia Group's top 10 risks for 2017, along with its analysis of the risks and, as a bonus, a list of red herrings:
1. Independent America
...
2. China overreacts
2. China overreacts
...
3. A weaker Merkel
3. A weaker Merkel
...
4. India: No reform
...
5. Technology and the Middle East
...
6. Central banks get political
6. Central banks get political
...
7. The White House versus Silicon Valley
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8. Turkey
8. Turkey
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9. North Korea
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10. South Africa
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