martes, 28 de abril de 2015

Argentina: Economic Opportunities and Challenges of the Demographic Transition

As Time Goes By in Argentina

by Michele Gragnolati, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella, and Sara Troiano


This book was written as part of a World Bank project coordinated by Michele Gragnolati, Rafael Rofman, Ignacio Apella, and Sara Troiano, who are also the volume editors and coauthors of the opening chapter.

The book follows the line of research initiated by Daniel Cotlear on population ageing in Latin America. This book’s development benefitted from valuable contributions and comments from Daniel Heymann, Fabio Bertranou, Maria Eugenia Bonilla-Chacin, Cristina Massa, Marta Novick, Jorge Paz, and Axel Rivas, received during a preliminary results workshop in Buenos Aires, May 27–28, 2013. 

In addition this book was enhanced by comments and suggestions from Diego Ambasz, Penelope Brook, Daniel Cotlear, Rafael de Hoyos, Ariel Fiszbein, Roberta Gatti, Joana Godinho, Margaret Grosh, Sabine Hader, Peter Holland, Christine Lao Pena, Anibal Lopez, Eugenia Marinova, Zafer Mustafaoglu, Luis Perez, Hannah Sybille Nielsen, and Cassio Turra. 

The authors extend special thanks to the team at the National Transfer Accounts project, led by Ronald Lee and Tim Miller, for their support and cooperation in the development of the projection methodology used for the majority of this book, as well as their suggestions on how to use the information generated by the project. 

This book consists of 12 chapters that discuss and analyze the potential economic impact of the demographic transition in Argentina. 
  • The first chapter summarizes the book’s findings. 
  • Chapter 2 presents Argentina’s demographic forecasts up to 2100. 
  • Chapter 3 estimates national transfer accounts and consumption profiles and labor income by age. 
  • Chapter 4 presents a basic forecast model for social spending on education, health care, and pensions from 2010 to 2100. 
  • Chapters 5, 6, 7, and 8 analyze the potential impact of the demographic transition on the pension, health care, long-term care, and education systems, respectively, according to different public policy options. 
  • Chapter 9 analyzes the fiscal impact of the demographic transition and the trade-offs among social sectors. 
  • Chapters 10 and 11 study the dynamics of the labor market in the context of ageing and the potential impact on global labor force productivity. All of 2 Preface As Time Goes By in Argentina 
  •  • these analyses are performed considering different public policy tools. 
  • Chapter 12 studies Argentina’s macroeconomic performance in relation to international experiences and the challenges and opportunities created by the demographic transition. 

The authors hope that your reading this book will not only open up space for ideas and public policy debates, but that it will also be enjoyable.

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