Once a society’s fertility rate slips below replacement decline is inevitable.

Women Are Having Fewer Babies

Than Ever in the US

by Jonathan Last 

Since 2007, the birth rate in the United States has been declining. Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report on the 2013 birth rate, announcing that “the U.S. general fertility rate was at an all-time low in 2013.” Here we reprint Jonathan Last’s essay from the 2014 Index of Culture and Opportunity.

When we talk about the “total fertility rate,” we mean the average number of children that the average woman would have over the course of her childbearing years. This is not a hard number, but rather a statistic that changes with time—a historical snapshot.

Juxtaposing these snapshots, however, reveals a clear and unsettling development: For the past 10 years, America’s fertility rate has been trending downward. This is of intense interest because the fertility rate shapes the nation’s age profile, impacts the economy, puts entitlement programs at risk, and even influences foreign policy.

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