Al-Qaeda has metamorphosed, developing from a single hierarchical terrorist organization into a network of affiliated but largely autonomous groups

The Once and Future Threat: 

Al-Qaeda Is Hardly Dead

by Ilan Berman

Is al-Qaeda really on the run? Since the death of Osama Bin Laden, the Obama administration has actively promoted the narrative that it has gained the upper hand in its struggle with the world’s most dangerous terrorist group. The president himself, as well as a variety of other US officials, has insisted time and again that al-Qaeda is “decimated” and on a “path to defeat.” But reports of the terror group’s death, to borrow a phrase from Mark Twain, have been greatly exaggerated. 

Although it suffered considerable operational setbacks over the past decade, al-Qaeda has proven both adaptive and resilient. Today, its two principal offshoots pose growing challenges to stability in North Africa and the southern Persian Gulf. The changing organization now sees growth opportunities in the deepening civil war in Syria, growing disorder in post–Saddam Hussein Iraq, lawlessness in the Sinai Peninsula, and the impending US withdrawal from Afghanistan. In all of these hot spots it is looking to expand its franchises and threaten US interests. Moreover, as a result of America’s progressive disengagement from the Middle East and North Africa, al-Qaeda is poised to discover still greater room for maneuver in the years ahead.

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