Julia Shaw reviews Jim Ceaser's new book on the 2012 presidential election.

Election 2012: Render Unto Ceaser

by Julia Shaw

Obama's re-election was not inevitable. He won because he secured the votes he absolutely needed and convinced many others simply not to vote.

Watching Barack Obama comfortably win reelection in 2012, after improbably winning in 2008, is almost enough to make one believe in capital-H History. After all, as late as January 1, 2004, Obama was an obscure Illinois state senator mounting an unlikely bid for the Democratic nomination for US Senate.

His opponents had better name recognition, and were backed by money and Chicago's Democratic machine. Even if he won the Democratic nomination, the GOP had a charismatic millionaire businessman/inner-city-school teacher (with an Irish name to boot) set to contend for the seat. And yet Obama won that Senate seat, after his opposition seemed to melt away.

After serving less than a third of his Senate term, he began running for president--surely, many thought, just to raise his profile. But he went on to beat Hillary Clinton and the entire Democratic establishment for the nomination and then to crush war hero John McCain in the general election. Destiny?

In 2011, his reelection looked tough, too. Although personally well-liked by many, his party had suffered a devastating loss in the midterm election; unemployment was high; the economy anemic at best. But he beat Romney. So, was Obama's presidency inevitable?

As tempting as it may be to answer that question in the affirmative, a new book reminds us that nothing in politics is predetermined. After Hope and Change:Â The 2012 Elections and American Politics, by James Ceaser, Andrew Busch, and John Pitney considers American politics, and the presidential election, as they really are.

In their telling, impersonal historical forces are an inadequate explanation for Obama's win. The book is an excellent antidote to the obsessive Game Change-style coverage so often produced by work-a-day journalists. Ceaser, Busch, and Pitney situate the election in the larger context of American history, and show how reflection and choice, bounded by time and context, led to Obama's reelection. After Hope and Change reveals a could-win election and a status-quo victory with some unclear consequences for the future of American politics.
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