Erratic leadership and a dysfunctional political system will cause the United States to underperform in international politics.

The Eight Great Powers of 2016: Iran Joins the Club
by Walter Russell Mead & Harry Zieve Cohen

Overall, 2015 was a year in which most of the great powers saw their ability to control events beyond and sometimes within their boundaries decline. With the exception of Iran, which gained strength during the year thanks to its diplomatic successes and the consequences of Russian intervention in Syria, 2015 was a year in which policy missteps and rates of relative decline had more of an effect on the power rankings than actual achievements and successes. These movements were encouraged and underscored by the collapse of the commodities boom, which has exploded the narrative that U.S. hegemony will imminently be undone by the inexorably rising BRICS without providing clear guidance about what might come next.

The country that fell the most in the power rankings was Germany; its failure to manage the deepening crises in the European Union did not just mean that the EU had another bad year. German leadership is also being called into question in a new way, and while no country is able to compete against Germany for the leading role in the EU, the danger is that German leadership will continue to falter in 2016 and that the EU will increasingly lack the ability to respond to its growing problems.

The most dramatic development in 2015 was that Iran catapulted into the ranks of the great powers, expanding their number to eight. Iran and Saudi Arabia are now engaged in a zero sum, no holds barred struggle to control the Middle East and its massive oil reserves. Falling oil prices create problems for both powers, but the combination of religious hatred and geopolitical competition ensures that both countries will give this competition everything they’ve got. In the end, either one of the two will emerge as the clear winner with a secure place on the list of great powers, or a third country (Turkey? Russia? The United States?) will capitalize on their rivalry and exhaustion to impose an order on the Gulf.

2015 was the year of grudge matches. Aside from India and the United States, the remaining great powers are struggling with each other. Russia tussles with Germany. The Saudis struggle with Iran. Japan confronts China. (India, of course, continues to face off against the second-tier power of Pakistan). In the coming year, these grudge matches, the effects of the commodities bust, and the China slowdown could be the big global stories to watch.

Global Power Rankings for 2016

1. USA ...
2. China ...
3. Japan ...
4. Germany ...
5. Russia ...
6. India ...
7. Saudi Arabia/Iran ...

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