The West was slow to understand the gravity of the threat Putin posed to European security

The Ukraine Invasion: One Year Later

by David J. Kramer


Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine posed the most serious challenge to European security in decades. In one stroke, he thumbed his nose at the Helsinki Accords of 1975, the Paris Charter of 1990, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, and other agreements and commitments that had kept the peace in Europe—with the exception of the Balkans—since the end of World War II. Suddenly, the post–Cold War order was torn to shreds, and many worried that if Putin’s brazen act was left unchallenged, other authoritarian regimes would think they, too, could get away with aggression against their neighbors.

On balance, the Western reaction to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was much stronger than Putin anticipated, even if it was less than what many advocated. At the time Putin made his move, few would have thought that a year later the West would have in place a harsh sanctions regime against Russian officials and entities. Russia was too big and important, both strategically and commercially—or so Putin and others assumed. But Putin left the West little choice. His thuggish treatment of his own population belied his claims that he cared about the plight of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. His cold-blooded reaction to the tragic shoot-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 turned around the mood in Germany, among other places, overnight.

The combination of Putin’s misplaying his hand numerous times during 2014 and the resolve of the West to take a stand against his aggression has left the Russian leader facing the gravest crisis of his presidency. There is some talk that Putin might not even serve out his current term, which runs until 2018.

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