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lunes, 6 de marzo de 2017

As U.S. influence declines, Europe’s discontents mount, and the countries of the Indo-Pacific come to dominate world politics, economics and security.


Asia’s precarious rise

by Michael Auslin


Since Japan’s emergence as an economic juggernaut in the 1970s, experts have predicted the arrival of an “Asian century.” We should get ready, they say, for a tectonic shift in global power as U.S. influence declines, Europe’s discontents mount, and the countries of the Indo-Pacific come to dominate world politics, economics and security. Images of Asia’s rising power and prestige have embedded themselves in our imaginations, from the purchase of Rockefeller Center by Japanese investors in the late 1980s to the grand spectacle of the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Today, with more than half the world’s population living in the region, Asia looms ever larger.

But this impressive ascent has not reconfigured world affairs, and it is unlikely to. The more important Asia has become on the global stage, the more glaring have its flaws become. The region is deeply fractured, threatened by economic stagnation, political upheaval and flashpoints that could trigger new wars. And in our more integrated global society, its troubles could quickly become everyone else’s. Much of the world’s attention in the coming decades will be devoted not just to accommodating Asia’s growing power but to managing and mitigating its many serious problems.

The bad news is likely to arrive in five discrete but interrelated varieties. The first major problem is the end of Asia’s economic miracle and the failure of its economies to reform. From Japan to India, Asian countries are struggling to maintain growth, balance their economies and fight slowdowns. The worries they face include uneven development, asset bubbles, labor woes and state control of markets.

The full text of this article will be posted on Monday, March 6.

Source: www.aei.org

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