A temporary force, spread across four countries, is a signal to Putin to be sure.

Deterring Putin?

by James Cunningham

The US military appeared to take an encouraging step towards building an effective deterrent to Russia when it announced its plan to deploy the “Ironhorse” armored cavalry unit to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland in the next two weeks. The unit, consisting of some 700 men and 20 M1A1 Abrams tanks as well as a few Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles, will replace the unit of paratroopers from the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team (BCT) that previously stood guard in the Baltics. The deployment, according to the Ironhorse’s public affairs officer, is intended “to be a very visible demonstration of commitment to our allies” and, presumably, demonstrate America’s force and will to Russia.

Of course, stated intentions do not always reflect reality. To begin with, this is a rotational deployment – for example, the troops of the 173rd will have spent only about six months in the Baltics – so it hardly signals a sustained commitment. (The administration and its NATO partners still refuse to move troops into the region on a permanent basis.) More importantly, even if the unit were to deploy at full strength, it would have 700 men and 20 tanks dispersed across four countries. Meanwhile, across the border, Putin musters hundreds of tanks, deploys upwards of 12,000 troops to the Ukrainian border, and, just last year, convened a military exercise featuring 70,000 troops.

To be fair, the presence of the Ironhorse, while insufficient to stop a determined Russian assault, might complicate the equation for Putin as he considers his next move in the region.

............

Read more: www.aei-ideas.org