viernes, 11 de diciembre de 2015

Argentina’s economic decline is not simply a result of the mere neglect of institutions, but their systematic dismantling.

Can the Right save Argentina?

By Harriet Maltby

Yesterday, for the first time in nearly fifteen years, the potent political force that has so dominated Argentinian politics for decades will not be sworn into the Presidency. For only the third time since the 1940s, Peronism has been defeated at the ballot box.

The election of the centre-right Mauricio Macri to the Presidency is a potential upset to a long set narrative of national decline. His pro-business stance and more liberal economic policy has been lauded. However, that the Right can save Argentina is far from certain.

Despite the narrative of decline, not all is lost for the average Argentine. The mantra of equality and social justice may have been subverted by poor economic policy, cronyism, and autocracy, but Peronism has not been universally bad for Argentina. The Prosperity Index shows that Argentina ranks 47th globally for prosperity, higher than would be suggested by its relative wealth.

So too does it over-perform in both health (45th) and education (40th), where it has been improving. Argentina is now 13th globally for the number of people who continue education beyond secondary school. At 80%, it sits well ahead of the UK and Germany who languish at 61%. Kirchner has not sunk her country, Argentina sits at the same rank for national prosperity as it did in 2009.

Yet this static performance masks the hidden cost of Kirchner for Argentinian prosperity. In three key areas it has experienced a sharp and rapid decline. Together they represent natural territory for the Right, but still pose a significant challenge for any incoming President.

For anyone familiar with the case of the suspicious death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman, found dead a day before he was due to testify about a cover up that reached the door of the Presidency, it will come as no surprise that Argentina’s governance structures are in crisis. The Index has recorded a 29 rank fall for governance in the last four years alone. At just 104th globally, the decline has been marked by the erosion of the rule of law, growing hostility towards the private sector, and the belief held by over 3 in 4 Argentinians that corruption is widespread.

This erosion of property rights and rise of cronyism has not only had an effect on the quality of governance in Argentina, it has been particularly devastating for the economy and entrepreneurial environment. In a country as centralised as Argentina, with state intervention in almost every sector, the distortions created by poor governance have a devastating economic impact. Only last year, restrictions on imports, increased subsidies, and controls on private sector output saw businesses fold, shelves left empty, and workers laid off.

It is unsurprising then, given this centralism and interventionism, that Kirchner presided over a near 20 rank fall for Argentina’s economy in the Index during her last term. Recession, rampant inflation, and falling employment has killed economic optimism. As Kirchner was last sworn into the Presidency, nearly 60% of Argentinians felt it a good time to find a job. Today that is just 34%. In the same period, entrepreneurship has been neutered by a 50% increase in start-up costs, making them among the highest in the developed world. Unsurprisingly, the Index captures an 11 rank fall for Entrepreneurship and Opportunity since 2009. The reality of Kirchner’s last term is a country where living standards are falling. 76% were satisfied with living standards in 2011, today that has fallen to just under 70%. Alongside it, Argentina’s belief in hard work and opportunity is also on the wane.

Thus as Mauricio Macri, President-Elect and leader of centre-right party Republican Proposal, takes office, there is hope for Argentina. The heavy dose of economic liberalism needed to secure Argentinian prosperity is the Right’s natural territory. The question is, can Macri do enough?


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