China: conflict more likely than at any point in last 20 years

Expert: South China Sea “Accident” Could Spark Sino-U.S. War


by Paul Joseph Watson

Conflict more likely than at any point in last 20 years

Policy expert Michael Auslin warns that an “accident” in the South China Sea could spark a Sino-U.S. war and that conflict between the two superpowers is more likely than at any point in the last 20 years.

In a piece for the Commentator, Auslin, a former Associate Professor of history at Yale University, explains the “three real-world scenarios” which could lead to a confrontation.

The first is an accidental mid-air collision in a repeat of the 2001 incident when a Chinese fighter and a US Navy surveillance plane collided over Hainan Island, prompting an international dispute.

“The US Navy is reportedly considering sending ships within 12 miles of the manmade islands, thereby entering into what China claims is now sovereign territory,” writes Auslin. “With Chinese naval and maritime patrol vessels in the waters, intimidation or harassment of US ships could lead to a collision, with each side responding in turn.”

“This is what China has done to ships of other nations, and an accident could lead to a stand-off,” he adds.

Once China completes the construction of airstrips on the islands, making it easier for fighter jets to patrol the area, a collision becomes more likely, according to Auslin.

The second scenario which could spark a war involves China forcing a confrontation by closely shadowing US planes in the hope that the Obama administration would back down given its equally pressing problems in the Middle East and with Russia.

“China’s leaders may decide that stopping American incursion into their newly claimed waters early on is the best opportunity to make the risks to Washington seem too high,” writes Auslin.

The third scenario involves China intercepting planes belonging to U.S. allies such as the Philippines. Washington could then legitimately intervene under the justification that it is upholding international law.

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