Can political scientists “predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start”?

Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections

By NATE SILVER

The broader point is that we can get into trouble when we exaggerate how much we know about the future. Although election forecasting is a relatively obscure topic, you’ll see the same mistakes in fields like finance and earthquake prediction in which the stakes are much higher.

This year looks to be one of those complicated elections, and already the models are producing wildly diverging results — everything from aRepublican landslide to a lock-solid Obama win. Be careful when you see these forecasts; the most confident-sounding predictions are often the most likely to fail.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/models-based-on-fundamentals-have-failed-at-predicting-presidential-elections/