China: we must continue to bang the drum ...

China’s Demographic Crisis

by Marcus Roberts

I  am following up a recent blogpost about China’s demographic decline.  This piece (*) from theEconomist shows that the inexorable rise of the Dragon will be hindered by its demographic Achilles heel.  According to the UN medium variant population projection, China’s population will dip to below 1.3 billion in 2050 (assuming that its very low fertility rate starts to recover).  However, if its fertility rate remains at about 1.5-1.6 children per women then China will have less than 1 billion people in 2060.  Thus, China can no longer be considered the factory of the world – its workforce will actually start to shrink in absolute terms after 2013.  If China wants to continue to supply its hungry factories with hands then it will need to look offshore for workers. Who knows what problems large scale immigration will bring to China, it is, after all, a country that does not have a history of integrating migrants in large numbers in recent times.

(*) http://www.economist.com/node/21553056

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