domingo, 29 de mayo de 2016

The security of co-dependence ?

Could Russia REALLY go to war with NATO?

By Ian Shields

The novel is reminiscent of Tom Clancy's "The Hunt for Red October" and the excellent "The Third World War: August 1985" by General John Hackett.
A new book by General Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO's deputy supreme allied commander for Europe between 2011 and 2014, evokes a potential scenario that leads to a devastating future war with Russia.

The book, "2017 War with Russia," (1) is clearly labelled as a work of fiction.
But it portrays a fairly convincing manufactured incident that the fictional president of Russia uses as a causus belli for a clash with NATO.
In his account, Russia rapidly expands its war aims by invading the Baltic States, which areNATO members, and world war ensues.

Perhaps more worryingly, the author has since told BBC Radio 4's "Today" programme that such a conflict is "entirely plausible."

U.S. launches long-awaited missile defense shield

Fact vs. fiction

I do not want to give any more away about the book (it is a good and authentic, if gloomy, read).

But the general's underlying political message -- clearly articulated in the book's preface -- is that the hollowing out of defense capabilities across the West and its reluctance and inability to stand up to Russia is making war ever more likely.

Is this an accurate assessment of the real world?

The novel is reminiscent of Tom Clancy's "The Hunt for Red October" and the excellent "The Third World War: August 1985" by General John Hackett.
The latter, written at the height of the Cold War, was conceived as a "future history," supposedly looking back at the outbreak and subsequent unfolding of a full-blown NATO vs Warsaw Pactwar.

Shirreff's book, however, is a far more overtly political piece, and is deeply critical of the West's reduced defense spending and its unwillingness -- and inability -- to stand up to the Russian threat.


Read more:

(1) Amazon review:

'You fail to read this book at your peril' - Admiral James G Stavridis, US Navy, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe. 

Closely modelled on his NATO experience of war gaming future conflicts, 2017 War With Russia is a chilling account of where we are heading if we fail to recognise the threat posed by the Russian president. 

Written by the recently retired Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and endorsed by senior military figures, this book shows how war with Russia could erupt with the bloodiest and most appalling consequences if the necessary steps are not taken urgently. 

President Putin said: 'We have all the reasons to believe that the policy of containment of Russia which was happening in the 18th, 19th and 20th century is still going on...' And 'If you press the spring, it will release at some point. Something you should remember.' Like any 'strongman', the Russian president's reputation for strength is everything. Lose momentum, fail to give the people what they want and he fails. 

The President has already demonstrated that he has no intention of failing. He has already started a lethal dynamic which, unless checked right now, could see him invade the Baltic states. 

Russia's invasion and seizure of Georgia in 2008 was our 'Rhineland moment'. We ignored the warning signs - as we did back in the 1930s - and we made it 'business as usual'. Crimea in 2014 was the President's 'Sudetenland moment' and again he got away with it. 

Since 2014 Russia has invaded Ukraine. The Baltics could be next. 

Our political leaders assume that nuclear deterrence will save us. 

General Sir Richard Shirreff shows us why this will not wash.

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