Can political scientists “predict winners and losers with amazing accuracy long before the campaigns start”?

Models Based on ‘Fundamentals’ Have Failed at Predicting Presidential Elections

By NATE SILVER

The broader point is that we can get into trouble when we exaggerate how much we know about the future. Although election forecasting is a relatively obscure topic, you’ll see the same mistakes in fields like finance and earthquake prediction in which the stakes are much higher.

This year looks to be one of those complicated elections, and already the models are producing wildly diverging results — everything from aRepublican landslide to a lock-solid Obama win. Be careful when you see these forecasts; the most confident-sounding predictions are often the most likely to fail.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/26/models-based-on-fundamentals-have-failed-at-predicting-presidential-elections/

The people of Slovenia has shown that claims for privileges for a minority cannot be accommodated at the expense of the right of every child to have a father and a mother

More successful European resistance to same-sex marriage campaign

Michael Kirke

Slovenians turn down same-sex marriage, European Dignity Watchreported yesterday. The electorate, in a post-legislative referendum, has overturned the provisions in Slovenia’s new Family Code legalizing same-sex marriage that was adopted by the Balkan country’s parliament in June 2011.

In a popular vote, 55% of voters rejected the new Family Code and 45% supported the law. Turnout was 30% on a sunny Sunday.

http://www.mercatornet.com/conjugality/view/10505

When a woman approaches an abortion clinic it does not always mean she wants a termination

ABORTION REGULATION: Putting the information into “informed consent”


Margaret Somerville


Anna (not her real name) came to see me to discuss the research she was doing on abortion. We talked about the articles she’d read, when I asked her, “How did you become interested in this topic?” She hesitated, then said, “I’ve just had an abortion, and I’m terribly upset and I’d like to tell you about it.” Her story is tragic.


http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/putting_the_information_into_informed_consent

I don’t want to be the guy who has to sit with my granddaughter 20 years from now, and tell stories about an America where people were once free.

Rick Santorum Doesn't Rule Out Possible VP Slot: 'I'll do whatever is necessary to help our country.'

In an interview at our Brody File studio on Monday, Rick Santorum refused to rule out accepting an invitation to be Mitt Romney’s vice president nominee, saying, "I'll do whatever is necessary to help our country."

The full interview will air on this week’s 30-minute Brody File television show.

http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2012/03/26/exclusive-rick-santorum-doesnt-rule-out-possible-vp-slot-ill.aspx

In 10 years - as it is in Turkey - we will hardly recognize the Egypt that has developed

Egyptian Islamists set to dominate panel that will write constitution


Rick Moran

Choosing more than half the membership of the panel from the ranks of the two Islamist parties was made easier when liberal and secular parties declined to participate. The Muslim Brotherhood promises they won't write a constitution that will exclude anyone or force anyone to obey their brand of Islam.

But really, who believes that?

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/03/egyptian_islamists_set_to_dominate_panel_that_will_write_constitution.html

President Obama made the right call. Seal Team Six performed magnificently.

Bumper Sticker History: Remembering Some Truly Audacious Military Operations

by Earl H. Tilford

The most audacious plan in 500 years? No way. Just keeping it to raids, the November 20, 1970 Son Tay Raid conducted by U.S. Army Special Forces in conjunction with the U.S. Air Force Aerospace Rescue and Recovery Service was far more audacious in concept, planning, and execution. 

http://www.visionandvalues.org/2012/03/remembering-some-truly-audacious-military-operations/ 

Why do so many accomplished women decide to have children on their own, thus creating the world's first purposely fatherless children?

Has the Sexual Revolution Been Good for Women? No

by Mary Eberstadt

Spring came early to most of the 50 states this year—and with it, at least in the political fields, the usual crop of mixed truths, untruths, and wildly growing falsehoods. Let's yank up one of those weeds for a little inspection: the idea that a national "war on women" is afoot.
It's an ideological whopper that demands more scrutiny than it has so far gotten, because underneath it are solid rocks of myth concerning what are called the "social issues." Let's turn over a few of these to see what facts they hide.
Myth No. 1: The "war on women" consists of tyrannical men arrayed against oppressed but pluckily united women.
Myth No. 2: If it weren't for the Catholic Church, no one would be talking about contraception anyway
Myth No. 3: The "social issues" are unwanted artifacts of a primitive religious past that will eventually just fade away.
Myth No. 4:The sexual revolution has made women happier.


http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/112151