The Pentagon this week released its annual assessment on Chinese military and security developments.

 

The Pentagon's ominous report on China's military power

by Sean Durns

 

The Pentagon this week released its annual assessment on Chinese military and security developments. The report aims to "provide background on China’s national security, foreign policy goals, economic plans and military development."

What it really illuminates, however, are the expansionist objectives of the Chinese Communist Party.

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For a start, the Pentagon now projects that China is likely to have at least 1,000 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2030. The Pentagon estimates that Beijing may have "up to 700 nuclear deliverable warheads by 2027." The analysis also indicates that China may have already established a "nascent nuclear triad," which includes the ability to launch nuclear missiles from the air, sea, and ground.

Unsurprisingly, China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy is predicted to continue growing. China, the report notes, already has "numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of approximately 355 ships and submarines." In 2019, Beijing commissioned its first domestically produced aircraft carrier. Sea power has long been the primary means by which countries project influence. And it isn’t unusual for a nation to expand its naval power as its economy, and thus its interests, grow. What is striking, however, is the PLAN's rapid ability to build its navy and to get its vessels sea-ready — particularly when contrasted with the United States. The PLAN is expected to have a battle force of 420 ships by 2025 and 460 ships by 2030.

This is far beyond the U.S. Navy's projected strength. The Hudson Institute's Seth Cropsey has recently charged that the Navy is "hobbled by questionable training, a shortage of personnel, and a general unpreparedness to fight and prevail in a war." Should a war with China occur over Taiwan, Cropsey has warned that the U.S. Navy "will face a serious erosion of its combat power after only a handful of Chinese missile barrages."

China also looks set to increase its ballistic missile capabilities. The PLA’s intermediate-range ballistic missiles are predicted to increase in stock by as much as 33%.

Nor does the Pentagon’s new assessment leave little doubt about the direction of Chinese air power. In 2019, Chinese military planners sought to transition from territorial air defense to "offensive and defensive operations." They seem to be making progress. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is "rapidly catching up to Western air forces." The Pentagon warns that "this trend is gradually eroding longstanding and significant U.S. military technical advantages … in the air domain."

Chinese space, counterspace, and cyberwarfare capabilities are also predicted to increase dramatically. Overall, the Defense Department warns, China is looking to "project and sustain military power at greater distances … not just within the immediate environments … but throughout the Indo-Pacific region and indeed, around the world."

On the day that the Pentagon’s report was published, the chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, told the Aspen Security Forum that China wants to challenge the U.S. globally. This much seems clear. What is less certain, however, is whether Americans and their elected representatives are as alarmed as our defense planners. They should be.

The writer is a foreign affairs analyst based in Washington, D.C. His views are his own.

Read more - Source: www.washingtonexaminer.com

The Pentagon this week released its annual assessment on Chinese military and security developments:  https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF