domingo, 10 de abril de 2016

Republican Race: regardless of which scenario prevails, there’s likely to be conflict in Cleveland.

How the Republican race could end

by Norman J. Ornstein

Even before Ted Cruz thrashed Donald Trump in Wisconsin, there was incessant buzz in political circles about the possibility of a contested convention in Cleveland. Since Wisconsin, the buzz has ramped up substantially, consuming hundreds of hours of bloviation on cable news networks. I’ve been gratified to see that, after months of effort by me and others, the term “brokered convention” has largely been dropped. There will be no brokers in Cleveland capable of delivering the nomination.

Now, at last, some of our best analysts are weighing in with plausible scenarios, includingFrancis Wilkinson and Josh Putnam

Here are my own scenarios for what might happen next:
  1. Trump gets 1,237 delegates by June 8.
  2. Trump falls short of 1,237 in June, but gets to the majority before the convention in July.
  3. Trump falls short and Cruz trails—but Cruz wins on the second ballot.
  4. Trump and Cruz form an alliance against the chicanery and evil of an establishment bent on choosing someone else.
  5. The establishment has enough muscle and support to choose an outsider who does not have the negatives that are evident for Trump and Cruz.

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