by David Frisk
The difficulty in predicting the size of Republican gains next week arises from several factors that seem, thus far, to have shielded the Democrats from the full consequences of Barack Obama’s richly deserved unpopularity. One of these factors, operating mainly though not only in the Senate races, reflects closely linked political truisms: Money talks, incumbency is usually an advantage. But others that have inhibited a strong Republican wave are longstanding within the GOP and its base—problems for which there is no equivalent, or a much smaller one, among the Democrats. Here as elsewhere, analysts of American politics are often mistaken when tending to assume symmetry between the parties.
Whether Republican gains in the Senate, House and elsewhere are small or larger, they will have been lessened by Democratic advantages in ground-game work, by major GOP donors’ reluctance at least until very recently to give as much as they could, and by the disaffection many voters on the right feel toward the party’s leaders and candidates.
The ground-game disparity, an underreported story, owes much to Republican Party culture. Its volunteers, for instance—one detects this by reading relevant media articles over the years, but also from personal experience in grassroots work—seem less intensely or confidently “political,” less willing to engage in effective conversations with undecided voters. I suspect this is partly explained by most Republicans’ more tepid attitude toward power and even, relatedly, toward public advocacy. Grassroots Republicans may also be less likely to know how to address voters in person, since most have less experience in ideological discussion than the larger pool of left-leaning activists plus union operatives. Occupational differences may play a role as well. A school teacher (D) is accustomed to speaking articulately to strangers, if only to kids and parents. Similarly, he or she is used to nudging people based on real or assumed greater knowledge. A small businessperson or middle manager (R), in contrast, worries about what customers think and doesn’t want to upset anyone. That’s fine in personal and professional life but can be a serious problem in politics. Additionally, the Republican worker has the same problem as the Republican candidate in a competitive race: promoting to undecided voters (who are often also low-information voters) the more abstract conservative or libertarian message. The more concrete, simpler “progressive” one is easier to push.
Another sticking point for the Republican ground game is at the managerial level. Whether due to a distrust of activists, for cultural reasons, or because, as has frequently been argued, there isn’t much money in it for consultants, party professionals haven’t stressed direct voter contact and especially that laborious, anxiety-inducing door-knocking to the extent their Democratic counterparts have. There remains a bias toward costly TV ads and direct mail, despite a changing communications climate in which people increasingly block these, literally or psychologically.
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