The current state of affairs increases the chance of conflict

Asia and 1914

by Dan Blumenthal

One hundred years after the beginning of World War I, many Asians fear history is repeating itself. The source of concern is China's growing power and its demonstrated willingness to use that power coercively. While China's claims on Taiwan and the uncertainty about its long-term aims on the Korean peninsula remain key regional flashpoints, China has also turned its gaze to the South and East China Seas.

So far this year, tensions have grown between China and Vietnam and China and the Philippines. But it is Sino-Japanese tensions that have the most potential for conflict. The two Southeast Asian nations are weak and can be coerced if the United States does not offer them its support. But Japan has both the strength and the will to stand up to Beijing on its own. What's more, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is showing real leadership in organizing a counter-balance to China's ambitions and assertions.

It was Abe who evoked the 1914 parallel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland earlier this year, stating that China and Japan must avoid the fate of Britain and Germany. The analogy is imperfect but astute. China's ambitions, particularly in the maritime sphere, bear some resemblance to those of the Kaiser's Germany. Like Germany then, China now feels bottled up by its rivals' navies, has increasing overseas interests to protect, and believes that great powers should have great navies.

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Japan and China: 

Not Yet 1914, but Time to Pay Attention

POSTED BY HAMILTON SOCIETY 

In Foreign Policy, AHS Co-founder Dan Blumenthal and advisory board member Mike Green discuss the growing tensions between Japan and China:


"The current state of affairs increases the chance of escalation. Nobody is sleepwalking in Beijing. It seems as though Washington is."

Read more: shadow.foreignpolicy.com