Obama fails the Crimea Rorschach test
Vladimir Putin’s designs on Ukraine could not be clearer. Yet Mr. Obama clings to the notion that Moscow is motivated by weakness and fear.
Russia is acting, he says, “not out of strength, but out of weakness,” and from the groundless fear that we’re trying to “encircl[e] Russia.” So the real problem is us. If we could only reassure Mr. Putin we mean no harm, maybe he’ll back off.
Sometimes, though, a bear really is a bear. Mr. Putin may not have some grand plan worked out to the last detail, but he is an opportunist. And, unlike Mr. Obama, he appears not to be bluffing. Rather he’s a man who, step by step, appears to be coldly calculating his options.
The “Putin fears us” narrative offers a possible win-win setup for Mr. Obama, however. If the Russian stops at annexing Crimea, Mr. Obama can claim victory. (“The sanctions worked!”) If Russia invades Ukraine? Well, it was Mr. Putin’s “paranoia’ that made him do it — paranoia supposedly stoked by American hawks like Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain.
There are lots of problems with this line of reasoning. For one thing, there’s no reason to think that this is how Mr. Putin views the situation. He may not be afraid of confrontation over Ukraine. But he may well think that Mr. Obama is. That would be a reasonable interpretation of Mr. Obama’s blowing hot and cold in the crisis — threatening sanctions one day while implying he’s open to negotiations to assuage Russia’s paranoia.
Beyond that, such reasoning confirms the legitimacy of Mr. Putin’s claim that he’s merely responding to our threats. If Western intimidation truly is the source of the conflict, what’s to stop Mr. Putin at Ukraine? Why not take on the Baltic states or even Poland? The insatiability of Mr. Putin’s appetite thus becomes the only truly limiting factor in the crisis, because he now knows that our president wants an “off-ramp” from the crisis more than he does.
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Read more: www.washingtontimes.com
Sometimes, though, a bear really is a bear. Mr. Putin may not have some grand plan worked out to the last detail, but he is an opportunist. And, unlike Mr. Obama, he appears not to be bluffing. Rather he’s a man who, step by step, appears to be coldly calculating his options.
The “Putin fears us” narrative offers a possible win-win setup for Mr. Obama, however. If the Russian stops at annexing Crimea, Mr. Obama can claim victory. (“The sanctions worked!”) If Russia invades Ukraine? Well, it was Mr. Putin’s “paranoia’ that made him do it — paranoia supposedly stoked by American hawks like Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain.
There are lots of problems with this line of reasoning. For one thing, there’s no reason to think that this is how Mr. Putin views the situation. He may not be afraid of confrontation over Ukraine. But he may well think that Mr. Obama is. That would be a reasonable interpretation of Mr. Obama’s blowing hot and cold in the crisis — threatening sanctions one day while implying he’s open to negotiations to assuage Russia’s paranoia.
Beyond that, such reasoning confirms the legitimacy of Mr. Putin’s claim that he’s merely responding to our threats. If Western intimidation truly is the source of the conflict, what’s to stop Mr. Putin at Ukraine? Why not take on the Baltic states or even Poland? The insatiability of Mr. Putin’s appetite thus becomes the only truly limiting factor in the crisis, because he now knows that our president wants an “off-ramp” from the crisis more than he does.
..............................
Read more: www.washingtontimes.com
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