We know (and so surely does Putin) that the U.S. is not going to go to war over Ukraine. Yet even with the military option off the table, the U.S. still has quite a few diplomatic and economic tools at its disposal, to be deployed publicly and, most crucially, privately.

How to understand Putin's Ukraine strategy

by Leon Aron

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The West’s steps are not difficult to divine. 

To begin, in the public domain, separate statements and phone calls to Putin by U.S. allies would be replaced by a joint statement from the heads of state of NATO and EU countries warning about the “consequences” of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Such a statement should stress that Russia risks isolating itself from the world — economically, politically, culturally — with disastrous results for the people of the Russian Federation.

These “consequences” may have been spelled out in President Obama’s private call to Putin (with an understanding that what is private today may become public tomorrow). 

Ideally, the conversation would have been one in which the American president was speaking not only for the U.S., but also for NATO and the EU. 

The president is likely to have pointed out that the risks would involve 

• Russia's membership in the G8, 
• the safety of financial and other assets of the Russian elite which are located outside of Russia, as well as 
• the ability of the members of this elite and their families to visit, live or study in the U.S. and the EU. 
• In addition, Moscow's behavior could trigger new export controls, which given its dependence on Western technology, particularly in the oil and gas sector as well as in the food industry, could have a very negative impact on the Russian economy.​

Alongside these measures, the U.S. and its allies might also provide — publicly and in private — a few face-saving devices for Russia, such as 

• guarantees that the Russian-speaking Ukrainians will be free from harassment or discrimination of any kind; 
• an introduction of U.N. peacemaking forces in Crimea to protect the political rights of all Crimeans, 
• and the reaffirmation of the pre-existing “special status” of Crimea within Ukraine, as well as 
• the continuation of the pre-existing Russian sovereignty of the leased naval base in Sevastopol.

Given the size of the hole that the Ukrainian revolution has torn in the fabric of Russia’s geopolitics, these measures may not stop Russia from attempting to reverse the crisis. But they will certainly convey the increasing costs of the course in which the Kremlin seems to be embarking, and possibly provide a way out without losing face.

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