Venezuela: “we believe that risks to President Maduro’s popular and military backing could rise if the demonstrations continue to spread across the country and violence against protestors escalates further.”

How Venezuela's Troubled Economy Turned Into Chaos And Why It'll Only Get Worse

JENS ERIK GOULD, THE FINANCIALIST

It’s been a tragic two weeks in Venezuela. Six people have died at protests and a prominent opposition leader was arrested after student marches escalated into large opposition-led demonstrations. Fierce mudslinging between President Nicolas Maduro and his opponents, the killing of a local beauty queen at a protest on Wednesday and the expulsion of three American diplomats have made for dramatic headlines and prompted international media outlets to question whether the president’s days in power might be numbered.

While alarming, the recent events in the South American country aren’t exactly new. Under former President Hugo Chavez, who died from cancer nearly a year ago, opposition rants against the government were met with daily government diatribes charging its critics of being coup plotters backed by Yankee imperialists. Then as now, students and opposition protesters demanding more security and freedom of speech were met with tear gas and water cannons, American diplomats were routinely chastised, and protesters died on the streets—such as the 19 people killed during an opposition march just before a 2002 coup against Chavez.

Still, concern is growing that the situation may become prolonged and increasingly disruptive. Local blogs and social media—which have become a vital source of information as local television is providing little live coverage of the protests—contain reports of increasingly violent clashes between protesters and national guard troops. Demonstrations are also expanding from Caracas to encompass a greater swath of territory. Clashes in cities such as Barquismeto, Merida, San Cristobal and Valencia may make it more difficult for the government to control its use of force against protesters. “We expect the situation to remain very fluid with continued potential for violent confrontations over the weekend,” Credit Suisse analyst Casey Reckman said.

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