The former KGB colonel will not remain idle: no territory is more central to this mission than Ukraine, which Mr. Putin sees as a Russian territory. Not entirely without reason

Why Putin’s gaze is fixed on Ukraine

By Clifford D. May

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not happy. The government he backed in Ukraine has collapsed. The Ukrainian leader he favored, Viktor Yanukovych is on the run, accused of the “mass murder” of protesters.

I am not so bold as to predict what Mr. Putin will do next. That he will take action — perhaps very bold action — should be the working assumption of American policy planners.

On one level, Mr. Putin is a simple man: He likes to hunt, fish and ride horses bareback. Those who cross him end up in cages in Siberia — or worse. Employing Machiavellian principles, he has become, over the past 15 years, a neo-czar.

He also has demonstrated a remarkable ability to befuddle American leaders. In 2001, President George W. Bush looked into Mr. Putin’s eyes and came away with “a sense of his soul” — suggesting it resembled Thomas Jefferson rather than Ivan the Terrible.

Nevertheless, President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton convinced themselves that it was Mr. Bush’s cowboy swagger — not conflicting geopolitical interests — that were the root cause of Russo-American tensions.

Their solution: “Reset” relations with the Kremlin. That this was a misguided policy became evident when Mrs. Clinton, with elaborate fanfare, presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with a button inscribed with the Russian word “peregruzka.” She believed it meant “reset.” In fact, it means “overcharge.” (Reset is “perezagruzka.” True, that’s only a two-letter mistake, but spelling matters when one letter separates “Obama” from “Osama.”)

Two things to keep in mind about Mr. Putin: 

• First, just as a U.S. Marine is always a U.S. Marine, so a KGB colonel is always a KGB colonel. 
• Second, he believes — and in 2005 stated clearly — that the “demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century.

This does not imply that he is a communist. 

Ideologies — indeed, ideas — are of little apparent interest to him. 

What he does care about is power — for himself, certainly — but also for the Russian nation and people. 

Under both czars and commissars, Russia commanded an empire. 

If Mr. Putin does not restore Russian hegemony over a vast swath of Eurasia, it won’t be for lack of effort.

No territory is more central to this mission than Ukraine, which Mr. Putin sees as a Russian territory. Not entirely without reason

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