Chinese government officials have quietly become more sceptical about foreign banks' research reports

Beijing giving foreign economists

the cold shoulder

by George Chen

Foreign economists given the cold shoulder as government officials become more sceptical of research reports analysing scale of problem

Chinese government officials have quietly become more sceptical about foreign banks' research reports and are avoiding senior economists at global banks, partly because of growing mutual distrust over the scale and seriousness of the country's debt problems.

Economic researchers and people working for state-owned media told the South China Morning Post that the central government's propaganda department had instructed senior editors at major official media outlets to be cautious about whom they invite to talk about China's economy and what they might say about the problems and challenges it faces after its long run of supercharged growth.

"There's no black list or white list, but it's clear we are now being encouraged to invite economists and analysts with domestic securities firms and banks to talk about China's economy, especially on live broadcasts," said one mainland media source who declined to be named given the sensitive nature of the matter.

The mainland's fiscal position is weaker than official data shows but not significant enough to cause alarm, the International Monetary Fund said last month. The IMF warned that the mainland had become "more vulnerable to a macroeconomic shock" because of its higher debt and bigger deficit. It estimated augmented fiscal debt, which mainly refers to borrowing by local governments, had risen to about 45 per cent of the country's 51.9 trillion yuan (HK$66 trillion) gross domestic product in 2012. Many economists at foreign banks shared the IMF's concern.

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This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as Beijing wary of foreign banks’ reports on debt

Read more: www.scmp.com