“Being in Russia's back yard, the future of Ukraine will matter more to Russians than Americans. Clearly the Russians have more at stake here.”

Ukraine After Vilnius

by Peter Rutland

The country has stepped away from history’s threshold into stalemate.

In recent months observers waited with much anticipation for the 28 November Vilnius summit, at which Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia were to sign associate member agreements with the European Union. The event was billed as a momentous occasion in European history – the point at which the legacy of a Europe divided, dating back to the 1945 Yalta accords, would finally be overcome.

The Vilnius summit was also seen as vindication for the EU’s Eastern Partnership policy, an initiative launched in 2009 to reach out to Eastern neighbors who, it seemed clear, would not be offered full membership anytime soon.

Those heady expectations were abruptly deflated on 22 November, when Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych announced that he would not, after all, be signing the association agreement, or a related free-trade agreement.

Two factors stood in the way.

• First, the Europeans were insisting on the release from prison of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, something Yanukovych was loath to do lest she become the standard-bearer for the political opposition. 
• Second, Ukraine had been put under extreme economic pressure by Russia – from tighter controls on border trade to threats to maintain punitively high gas prices – to reject the EU deal. Yanukovych was asking the EU and IMF for financial assistance to cover these losses, on the order of $5 billion to $7 billion for this year alone.

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