How the United States should prepare to deal with China in the coming decades is a central topic

China’s transition: Three scenarios

Phillip Swagel 

My new book with Dan Blumenthal, An Awkward Embrace: The United States and China in the 21st Century, features three potential scenarios for the future of the Chinese economy and discusses implications for U.S.-China relations. The scenarios are:

1. Optimistic: China becomes wealthier and gradually becomes less authoritarian and a more responsible participant in the international system. 

2. Somewhat Pessimistic: China becomes rich but stays authoritarian and increasingly challenges or even threatens the United States in economic and security spheres. 

3. Very Pessimistic: China’s economic growth derails, leading to a period of internal instability that contributes to severe global instability.

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