China must weigh its options
On North Korea, China faces a geopolitical dilemma. Although the United States, South Korea and Japan view North Korea as a pressing threat, they all also view China as a looming one. Even if China were to work with other regional players to bring down the Kim Jong-un's regime, it will still face U.S.-allied nations arraying to balance its power. Even with Kim gone, both Japan and South Korea will want a substantial U.S. presence in the region. They will also continue to build up their military capabilities to hedge against China becoming more bellicose. The risk for China in cooperating on North Korea is losing a buffer state without gaining a diminution of allied power in Asia.
The Obama administration certainly has a strong case to present to China that it is better off without the Kim regime. Sino-U.S. relations would be strengthened, and the dangers of a war on the Korean Peninsula would decline. In addition, without the Kim regime and its weapons of mass destruction, South Korea and Japan would be less likely to acquire their own nuclear weapons. In addition, Chinese leaders care about their international reputation, which would improve greatly if it became part of the solution to a decades-old problem.
The contrary case is also very credible, and from Beijing’s perspective, more troublesome.
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